Modelové peľové predpovede

The measurement of pollen concentrations in Slovakia is carried out by the Regional Public Health Authority based in Banská Bystrica, which also operates the Pollen Information Service. The measured data are used annually to validate model results.

Pollen forecasts are available thanks to the National Collaboration Program - Slovakia project, which is funded by the European Union through the Copernicus Earth observation program and its atmospheric monitoring service CAMS, which is implemented by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) uses multiple numerical models—11 in total—to generate its outputs. A median value—representing the middle point among the pollen concentration forecasts from all these models—is calculated. These forecasts are typically provided at a high spatial resolution, often around 10 km, allowing for a detailed view of the geographical distribution of pollen concentrations. CAMS provides forecasts up to four days in advance. Currently, the service covers (though this may be expanded) pollen from birch, alder, olive, grasses, ragweed, and mugwort.

On the SHMÚ website, we provide forecasts for relevant allergens: ragweed, birch, alder, grasses (Poaceae), and mugwort.

CAMS works in close collaboration with the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) and initiatives such as AutoPollen. Much like numerical weather prediction, the CAMS system integrates incoming observations from monitoring stations across Europe in near real-time. These observations are used to adjust the starting point for daily forecasts—a process known as data assimilation—which significantly improves forecast accuracy. As a result, the pollen forecast serves as a validated and reliable operational product.